Enhancing septoria leaf blotch forecasts in winter wheat II: model architecture and validation results

Abstract In precision agriculture, pesticides and other inputs shall be used precisely when (and where) they are needed. European Directive 2009/128/EC calls for respecting the principles of integrated pest management (IPM) in member states. To clarify question, when, instance, fungicide use is needed, well-established economic principle IPM may used. This says that pests controlled costs control correspond with damage will cause. Disease levels corresponding referred to as thresholds IPM. Several models have been developed plant pathology predict epidemics occur, but hardly any these predicts a threshold directly limiting their usefulness answering question needed according Previously, we quantified temporal distance between critical rainfall periods breaking Zymoseptoria tritici on winter wheat being affected by temperature, based data from 52 field experiments carried out Luxembourg 2005 2016. knowledge was construct ShIFT (SeptorIa ForecasT, https://shift.list.lu/ ) model, which has validated using external recorded 2017 2019. Within efficacy period systemic fungicide, model allowed correct predictions 84.6% cases, while 15.4% cases were predicted falsely. The average deviation observed dates epidemic outbreaks 0.62 ± 2.4 days maximum 19 days. closely correlated ( r = 0.92, P < 0.0001). Apart outliers, forecast tested here reliable within current commercial fungicides.